[Preliminary quantitative risk assessment of non-typhoid Salmonella in raw chicken meat sold in Beijing in 2022].

Abstract

A quantitative microbiological risk assessment was conducted for non-typhoidal Salmonella(NTS)in raw chicken from retail stores to consumers in Beijing. The monitoring of microorganisms and pathogenic factors data was used to estimate the initial contamination level of NTS in the retail raw chicken. The growth model of NTS were referenced from the ComBase data base. Exposure assessment model was reference from scientific literature. Using the @ Risk 7.5 software for simulation analysis, combined with the dose-response relationship, estimate the risk of residents developing NTS disease. The risk of Salmonella infection per meal among Beijing residents due to consuming chicken and kitchen cross contamination was 6.21 cases per 100 000, with an average annual incidence of 51 955.42 cases. Sensitivity analysis shows that the initial contamination level of NTS in chicken purchased by residents, the average intake of ready to eat food per meal by residents, and refrigeration storage temperature are positively correlated, while they are negatively correlated with NTS exposure temperature and exposure time during cooking. Measures such as reducing the initial concentration of NTS in chicken, setting a reasonable refrigerator temperature, and reduce the occurrence of kitchen cross contamination can effectively reduce the risk of NTS disease.