Determinants of Cereal Productivity in Türkiye

Abstract

This study examines the long-run effects of temperature change, number of tractors, cereal acreage, fertilizer consumption, and rural population on cereal yields using annual data for the period 1988-2022 in Türkiye. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is applied to analyze the long-run relationships among the variables. Empirical findings show that all independent variables in the model have statistically significant long-run relationships with grain yield. The number of tractors, fertilizer consumption, and rural population have a positive effect on grain yield, while temperature change and grain cultivation area have a negative effect. In terms of positive effects, the rural population was identified as the most influential variable, followed by the number of tractors and fe